In the immediate aftermath of his election defeat, George Bush showed no taste for lame-duck diplomacy. Talking to national-security adviser Brent Scowcroft before his return to Washington, Bush canceled a trip to Moscow he had tentatively planned for after Thanksgiving. He made it clear that he would not take any foreign-policy initiative that would unnecessarily commit or constrain Bill Clinton. The steep tariff imposed on French wine last week (page 59) was something Bush felt he had to do, given European violations of trading rules. But Bush officials hope to settle the issue quickly so that Clinton doesn’t take office amid a raging trade war. White House chief of staff James Baker, who quit as secretary of state to try to revive Bush’s flagging campaign, did not plan a return to the State Department. He can stay involved in foreign policy from the White House. But first Baker went off to hunt birds in Texas.
Despite Bush’s and Baker’s desire to lie low, some potential crises may not be avoidable. Saddam Hussein could defy United Nations weapons inspectors again. Fidel Castro could be toppled in Cuba. Peace-making deadlines are looming: Nov. 15 for the next step toward demobilization in Cambodia and Dec. 15 for final demobilization in El Salvador. Other situations need active engagement from the Bush administration. Among the most volatile:
Bush officials expect they’ll have to step up aid efforts in Bosnia, where hundreds of thousands are in danger of starving and freezing to death. That wouldn’t represent any change in policy. But one top official told NEWSWEEK that if the Serbs widen the conflict by moving on Kosovo province, populated by ethnic Albanians, “we’ll have to look at some of the military options that we declined to use in Bosnia. Otherwise we could see Albania, Greece and Bulgaria drawn into the conflict.”
Arabs and Israelis both fear that the negotiations Baker nurtured may founder during the months it takes the Clinton team to get up to speed. Baker’s chief Mideast adviser, Dennis Ross, wants to help the parties firm up agendas so the four sets of bilateral talks can progress during Clinton’s early months. But aides say Baker won’t go to the region unless the parties signal beforehand that the trip could bear fruit. “It could be a totally futile gesture, a kind of silly-looking farewell tour,” said a Baker associate. Arab and Israeli officials have genuine worries about the lame-duck phenomenon. They say a Baker trip would be effective only if Clinton threw his support behind it-perhaps by sending an adviser along. Baker aides think that’s inappropriate and unlikely, but they say that Clinton or his secretary of state-designate could endorse the trip.
With unrest raging in many republics, and Russian President Boris Yeltsin facing a rebellious Congress of People’s Deputies meeting in December, Bush officials want to speed up Western debt relief to the newly independent states. Eagleburger also may travel to Moscow to try to shore up a Bush-Yeltsin deal promoting single-warhead long-range missiles, which the Russian military is now trying to roll back. But lame-duckery could thwart that effort if Moscow thinks it could get a better deal from Clinton.
Bush and his foreign-policy team have no illusions about their effectiveness. “When you’ve had your ass handed to you in an election, and you’re on your way out, it’s harder to use force, because you don’t want to commit your successor,” said a senior administration official. “But it’s harder to use finesse effectively, because you simply don’t have the same aura of power abroad.” The bottom line, this adviser said, is that “Bush is going to be playing a lot of defensive football.” For George Bush, the foreign-policy president, it’s an unaccustomed way to play out the season.
