Of course, I was going to Baghdad as well, and the fly’s misfortune rubbed off on me. My suitcase never arrived at baggage claim, and I was told by a colleague that it could take weeks before it was found. I barely had time to ponder the implications of wearing the same clothes for that time in 100-plus degree heat before more important issues came to light. The biggest: the continuing deterioration of security since my first assignments here in 2003 and today.
The Green Zone, the only place that seemed to promise guaranteed security in Baghdad, cannot boast that anymore. The proliferation of “duck and cover” shelters like fast food restaurants, to protect people from the daily mortar and rocket attacks, are testament to that, as is the tripling or even quadrupling of security checks and body searches inside the perimeter. Jogging or even walking out of doors is not advisable, though some continue to do so amid the occasional sirens warning of incoming projectiles.
I also needed to get my head around the latest with the U.S. military “surge” and the Iraqi political process, the latter of which, all sides agree, is the only way to secure a lasting peace here. It’s been 22 months since my last assignment here, but it’s clear that things are not going well. Consider events just this past weekend: Car bombs in and around Baghdad killed at least 220 people; some Shiite and Sunni political parties continued to boycott both cabinet and parliament sessions; there was renewed opposition to a draft bill governing Iraq’s oil industry, whose passage is one of the progress “benchmarks” set by the United States, and rumors of a pending no confidence vote against Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, with whom the Bush administration has pinned its hopes for political reconciliation and progress.
The political situation was grim back in the U.S. too. Republican Senators appearing on Sunday talk shows openly broke with the Bush administration about the “surge” strategy and a sobering New York Times editorial called on the U.S. government to pull out all troops without delay. Some have labeled such statements as defeatist and traitorous, but the fact is that things on the ground in Iraq are far more complex than most people in America realize. It’s easy to say that Al Qaeda is thwarting political reconciliation between Shiites and Sunnis or that all Iraqis are full of hate, but it’s a simplistic way to think.
Consider the Elam neighborhood in southwest Baghdad. Until two months ago, Shiites and Sunnis lived side by side in relative peace. Then one day the Mahdi Army, the militia loyal to Moqtada al-Sadr, the radical Shiite cleric and political figure, drove into the neighborhood blaring a pro-Sadr song on their car stereo, fired weapons into the air and wrote “Death to Sunnis” on a wall. A few days later, a young Sunni man was shot to death in the neighborhood. Later, a Sunni resident was kidnapped and then released under orders to tell fellow Sunnis in Elam to leave or face death. Many took the warning and fled, their homes now occupied by Shiites who now pay rent money to the Mahdi Army or the local mosque. A U.S. military patrol entered Elam after the murder and passed out phone numbers for residents to call if any militia members showed up. Then they drove away. “The Americans, they come and go but they don’t make any changes,” complained one resident. “The Mahdi Army is always there.”
Therein lies the problem. Political and security events unfolding across Iraq are largely beyond the control of U.S. and Iraqi forces and the national government. Take the strategic southern port city of Basra, which according to a recent report by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, has seen the collapse of the state apparatus and is now a “case study” in multiplying forms of violence. “These often have little to do with sectarianism or anti-occupation resistance,” the report says. “Instead, they involve the systematic misuse of official institutions, political assassinations, tribal vendettas, neighborhood vigilantism and enforcement of social mores, together with the rise of criminal mafias that increasingly intermingle with political actors.” That’s hardly the black-and-white scenario that some pundits in America think we’re facing here.
Is there any hope for Iraq? Maybe, but not before a long period of continuing violence and power struggles that could just as easily lead to national disintegration. It’s not beyond hope that the country can unite. It did so just last Saturday, when the Iraq national team played its opening match of the Asian Football Cup in Bangkok. After scoring the equalizer in what would end as a 1-1 draw against Thailand, Iraqi striker Younis Mahmoud pulled out and kissed a small Iraqi flag that was hidden in his pocket. For the millions of Iraqi soccer fans watching the match on TV, it didn’t matter whether Mahmoud was a Shiite, Kurd or Sunni. Given the hoopla here surrounding the team, I’m sure this solidarity will continue throughout the three-week tournament. That may not seem long to us, but it’s nearly a lifetime for a sand fly.
