The election is critical because it provides a chance for Indonesia to have a legitimate government following Suharto’s authoritarian rule. Only such a government can implement real political and economic reforms.
The results so far indicate that the reform parties–PDI-P of Megawati, PKB of Abdurrahman Wahid and PAN of Amien Rais–could win more than 60 percent of the vote. Megawati has emerged as the most popular leader, and she may become the next president of Indonesia. But in order to rule effectively, she needs a broad-based government. Only then will she get the best talents for her government–and the people’s support behind it.
To rule effectively, she needs to form a coalition of pro-reform parties. That makes it imperative for her to have both Wahid’s PKB and Amien’s PAN in the coalition. The public has begun to put pressure on the three leaders to resolve their differences and unite. Only if they do so will Indonesia have a fighting chance to overcome its economic crisis, rebuild the economy and guide society through the tricky process of democratization.
Both PKB and PAN are nationalist-oriented parties with a strong Muslim base. They should be able to help Megawati reach out to the Muslim community. Amien could play an important role in bridging the divide between Java and the outer islands. He has the trust of the non-Javanese leaders because he is more open to ideas of regional autonomy and federalism.
The obstacles to forming a coalition of the reformist parties are formidable because each constituency has its own agenda. But they can be overcome with enough pressure from the public and lobbying by other reformist leaders, friends and allies. Megawati, Wahid (known as Gus Dur) and Amien must work together for the survival of the nation. They must prevent any attempt by Golkar to draw in the Suharto-era Islamic United Development Party and other Muslim parties to create their own coalition.
The assembly that will elect the president and vice president includes not only the newly elected politicians but also 38 members from the military, 135 representatives from the 27 regions and 65 representatives of social and professional groups. That means that Golkar does have some leeway to split the vote; it may still be able to walk away with the presidency.
Safeguards should be established in drawing the presidential election rules–such as an open show of hands instead of a secret ballot–to prevent players from being bought. Student pressure can also help force the assembly to elect a reformist leader. The military has so far stayed out of the elections and will probably remain neutral in a contest between Megawati’s reformist coalition and a possible Islamic-Golkar alliance. The social impact of the results should not be underestimated. If Golkar attempts to prevent Megawati from becoming president after having won with 40 percent of the vote, her supporters may well turn to violence–especially if Habibie tries to become president by using all funds and forces at his disposal.
Once the reformist coalition is established, it should swiftly lay down a common platform for the new government. It has to formulate a clear strategy for implementing economic reforms. Such reforms must balance the need for growth and economic restructuring with the need for greater social justice. It should also establish a new team to run the government, including some of the younger technocrats who have not been tainted with corruption, collusion and nepotism.
To be sure, the new government will face many difficult issues. There is the problem of greater regional autonomy, particularly the deadlock in Aceh, the future role of the military and the healing of the body politic from authoritarian rule. Constitutional reforms will also become an important item on the agenda for the next government.
Still, the elections were a great start. They have allowed the country to begin a healing process. They constitute a victory for the Indonesian people that demonstrates a growing willingness to work together to build a new society for the future.
