In the short term, they probably can. The latest crisis is less daunting than it looks. Despite the explosive allegations from Capitol Hill, the White House remains committed to Riyadh. In fact, there’s little choice. Some U.S. strategists had hoped that post-Saddam Iraq would replace the fractious Saudis as guarantor of the world’s oil supply. Forget it. If Iraq’s security situation gets any worse, its oil production could remain below 2 million barrels a day. “As long as there is no Iraqi oil,” says a European intelligence analyst, “you had better not mess with a 10 million-barrel-a-day producer.” There’s only one.
Prince Saud clearly wants to give the impression that the excised part of Congress’s 9/11 report is no big deal. Hence the request that it be declassified. “If it’s nonsense, then it’s nonsense and we can go on,” he says. “If it has substance and there are criminals, then we can catch them quickly.” What has leaked so far suggests that Omar al-Bayoumi, a Saudi businessman who befriended two of the hijackers in San Diego, may have worked for Saudi intelligence. Bayoumi has since returned to Saudi Arabia. When national- security adviser Condoleezza Rice made the first formal U.S. request to question the businessman, the prince says he told her: “It didn’t have to be raised by you for us to take action on it.”
Riyadh seems to be getting the message at last. The May 12 suicide bombings in the capital that killed 34, including 8 Americans and 9 attackers, shocked many Saudi royals out of their complacency–especially the Interior minister, Prince Nayef. U.S. officials used to complain he was less than no help against terrorism. “He showed this stupid reluctance, taking it easy, thinking no harm can come to him,” recalls a friend of Crown Prince Abdullah’s. Saudi security forces are now cracking down hard on suspected Qaeda sympathizers, and CIA and FBI officials give credit to Nayef. Still, the kingdom’s future remains uncertain. King Fahd is a debilitated stroke victim. His full brothers, Nayef among them, have often quarreled with Abdullah, who is Fahd’s half brother. Who’s really in charge is an increasingly open question. And until it’s decided, doubts will persist about what will become of Saudi Arabia. No amount of bluster will make them go away.
