In subsequent commentaries and articles for NEWSWEEK, I suggested the presence of fleeting moments of opportunity to change course, establish realistic goals and involve the United Nations and regional allies in a long-term solution. In June 2004, I proposed that a federation of three independent states was the most likely long-term solution for Iraq, and that the Bush administration would do well to begin to shape that obvious outcome rather than continue to adhere to its short-sighted and irresponsibly naïve “stay the course” policy. From the very beginning, far more experienced regional experts than me were saying the same things.
And now, here we are, three-and-a-half years into the worst-case, nightmare scenario, with just under 3,000 U.S. dead, over 22,000 wounded and probably well over 100,000 Iraqi dead. The bipartisan Baker-Hamilton commission has stated flatly that “stay the course” is a failure, that catastrophe is a very real possibility, and that even if the administration adopts every one of the commission’s 79 recommendations, the United States may still fail horribly in Iraq.
America and the world will long debate the causes of our remarkably predictable descent into chaos in Iraq, but I believe one enduring truth has undermined our efforts from the start. The Bush administration and Congress since 2003 have demonstrated a breathtaking inability to rationally anticipate the likely outcomes of their actions. In particular, having repeatedly failed to plan for the worst-case scenario, they have repeatedly been forced to react as those very scenarios materialized. We simply must get out in front of this juggernaut. We are now at a critical juncture that can only be successfully negotiated if America’s leaders finally begin to anticipate and plan for what almost surely lies ahead. Ironically, and perhaps tragically, the Iraq Study Group report may actually prevent such a sea change in thinking from taking place. By offering a controversial way to “fix” Iraq, the commission report has already driven the Bush administration into a defensive, myopic crouch. This is the worst possible moment for such a response, and it means the next Congress and the new secretary of defense are very likely the only effective catalysts for change remaining in U.S. government. And what must they plan for?
It seems clear now that Iraq will very likely devolve into a full-blown civil war. If that occurs, Iran will back the Shiites and Syria will back the Sunnis. Should the principal mission of U.S. forces then be to seal the borders and try to contain the internal conflict? Or, should the United States simply withdraw and allow Iran and Syria to expend their national treasure in a protracted, regional, religious war between Shiite and Sunni? Such a wider war would certainly weaken Hezbollah’s base in Lebanon, blur Iran and Syria’s anti-American focus, and fracture the global Jihadist movement, but it could also spill into Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and destabilize those nations. What approach best protects vital U.S. interests? And what of the Kurds? Will Turkey and Iran tolerate an independent Kurdish state, which would almost immediately spring up as the Iraqi government collapsed? Should the United States support such a state established by the one group in this conflict which truly does align itself with Washington?
These are not easy questions. But waiting once again for events on the ground to dictate a U.S. response—particularly after the painful lessons we’ve learned thus far from this naïve approach—would be tantamount to criminal negligence and, in my judgment, an impeachable offense. It is a cliché of the times that an immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq would be a catastrophe. Perhaps. But I believe the real catastrophe will only occur if the U.S. continues to react blindly to short-term events in Iraq without developing a deliberative plan for long-term stability in a post-Iraq world. We need leaders in Washington, not followers. Leaders who understand that the war in Iraq has become a dangerous distraction from the far greater threat of a badly destabilized Southwest Asia and Middle East, which will now almost certainly happen. It is time for our new Congressional leaders to demonstrate the real courage of public service, rise above the political fray and demand action. Such leadership certainly won’t be found elsewhere.
Turner is a 24-year Air Force veteran and former fighter pilot and air-rescue helicopter pilot. He is a military analyst and commentator who spent seven years serving in U.S. Central Command and the Pentagon as a Middle East/Africa planner.
