Line: Wisconsin -12, Total: 141 (current NCAA Tournament spreads and totals)
Oregon Record: 26-9 ATS: 19-15 OVER/UNDER: 16-17 Overview: Oregon is one of the hottest teams in college basketball both in straight-up results and against the spread. The Ducks have covered 10 of their last 12 games, the losses coming vs. Arizona in the Pac-12 final and at UCLA; they’ve won 14 of their last 17 contests outright. As underdogs, though, Oregon has been a losing proposition at 6-7 ATS. They’ve caught double-digit points twice – both against Arizona – and did not cover in either of them.
Team page: Oregon
Handicapping tools: Matchup analysis | Power ratings | ATS standings
Wisconsin Record: 32-3 ATS: 18-16-1 O/U: 16-19 Overview: Although Wisconsin is one of the best teams in the nation, betting the Badgers as double-digit favorites has caused plenty of heartache. They are on a 1-7 ATS run when laying 10-plus points, indicating an over-valuation by the betting market. Wisconsin was unable to cover as the 20-point favorite in the second round against Coastal Carolina. While the Badgers’ offensive pace is one of the slowest in college basketball, their offense is the second-most efficient, and five of their last seven games have gone OVER the total.
Team page: Wisconsin
The Linemakers’ lean: The Ducks are on an incredible 8-1 ATS run, and our numbers say Wisconsin should be only an 8.5-point favorite in this spot. If this wasn’t a double-figure line, there would be no play, but there is clearly value with Oregon +12.5.
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h/t OddsShark for historical ATS data
