ALDS - Baltimore Orioles (96-66) at Detroit Tigers (90-72) Orioles lead 2-0 Series Price: Orioles -550 (opened Tigers -150 at the Golden Nugget)Season Series: Tigers won 5-1AL Pennant odds: Tigers 8-to-1, Orioles EV (Westgate)World Series odds: Tigers 16-to-1, Orioles 3-to-1 (Westgate)*
*Updated World Series and pennant odds can be seen here.
Game 3 Linemakers’ lean: The Tigers have their backs up against the wall, but they face a pitcher today that should give them a confidence boost. Bud Norris has really had an amazing season and comes in hot with a 4-0 record and 2.06 ERA in five September starts, but in two starts against Detroit this season, he gave up nine runs combined – both Tigers wins.
The Tigers won both of David Price’s final starts of the regular season as a large favorite. Their lone loss to the O’s was a 3-1 defeat back in May. Price was still in Tampa Bay at that point, but in 17 AL East battles against Baltimore, Price was 7-3 with a 2.82 ERA.
Look for both pitchers to have a good game, and for Price to do all he can to avoid needing the bullpen. Detroit pulls this one out and stays alive for another day, but there is a steep price to pay, and maybe too high of a price by about 20 cents. We like Detroit, but we hate the cost.
Prediction: Tigers 6-2
Series schedule Game 1, Thursday: Orioles 12-3, Max Scherzer (18-5, 3.15 ERA) -113, 7 OV -120 vs. Chris Tillman (13-6, 3.34) Game 2, Friday: Orioles 7-6, Justin Verlander (15-12, 4.54) vs. Wei-Yen Chen (16-6, 3.54) -105, 7.5 Game 3, Sunday: Bud Norris (15-8, 3.65) vs. David Price (15-12, 3.26) -171, 7.5 UN -120 Game 4, Monday: Miguel Gonzalez (10-9, 3.23) vs. Rick Porcello (15-13, 3.43)**If necessary
Tigers-Orioles trends * Baltimore was 19-9 behind Norris this season for +11 units of profit. * Norris is 0-3 with a 6.57 ERA in four starts against Tigers for -4.1 units. * Detroit was 45-36 at home this season for -8.6 units (big favorites in several losses) * Baltimore was 47-35 in road games this season for +21.8 units. * Baltimore was 47-27 this season when playing winning teams for +26 units.
Series lean: We were split in this series coming in, and while Detroit is getting 9-to-2 just to win the series and a season-high 16-to-1 to win the World Series, Game 4 doesn’t shape up well for Detroit behind Rick Porcello, who isn’t the same Porcello he was in the first half. The Tigers lost his final six starts of the season and 12 of his last 16. So even if they win Game 3, like we think they will, they’re not in great shape in the next game which makes taking Detroit in any future play outside of Game 3 a poor proposition.
ORIOLES-TIGERS PROPS (Westgate)
Total strikeouts thrown by: Bud Norris (Bal) Over 4.5 -135 Under 4.5 +115
Will Bud Norris (Bal) allow a home run? Yes -110 No -110
Total strikeouts thrown by: David Price (Det) Over 7.5 -130 Under 7.5 +110
Will David Price (Det) allow a home run? Yes EVEN No -120
Most total bases (Single=1, Double=2, Triple=3, Home Run=4, All else=0) Nelson Cruz (Bal) -105 Miguel Cabrera (Det) -115
Total runs+hits+errors by: Orioles+Tigers Over 25.0 -110 Under 25.0 -110
*Players must start for action, no parlays, game must go at least 8.5 or 9 innings for action.
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