And another odor can be sensed: the smell of blood. This is the nastiest Oscar race in years. A record amount of money was spent on the campaigning. As in any political campaign, if you don’t spend, you don’t get taken seriously. But as the bucks get bigger, the knives get sharper.
The best picture race is up to its knees in bad blood. At issue are the attacks on the veracity of “A Beautiful Mind,” which has generally been seen as the movie to beat. One rumor afoot in Hollywood is that Miramax’s Harvey Weinstein–who has spent a lot of money supporting “In the Bedroom,” and whose name appears as an executive producer on “Lord of the Rings”–is behind the “leaks” attacking the truthfulness of Ron Howard’s movie. Another says the culprit is 20th Century Fox, which has been vigorously promoting “Moulin Rouge.”
Even if these rumors are true (nothing has been proven), it’s not as if any of the revelations coming out about the real John Nash require any dirty detective work: everything comes from Sylvia Nasar’s best-selling biography of the man, which is credited as the source of the movie. Until now, most of Hollywood hasn’t seemed bothered by the “creative license” the filmmakers have taken: so Nash’s wife actually left him, so he fathered an illegitimate son, so he may have been busted once for coming on to a man in a men’s room in Malibu, so the Cold War paranoid fantasies that loom so large in the film are inventions of screenwriter Akiva Goldsman….
None of these major deviations from the facts have made a dent in the “Beautiful Mind” juggernaut. But on March 5, when the Drudge Report picked up on the virulent anti-Semitic statements that Nash made in the height of his paranoid delusions (again, all documented in Nasar’s book), the quakes could be felt all over town. Universal Chairman Stacy Snider went on the attack, claiming that “lines that should be clear to all of us have recklessly been crossed.” DreamWorks mogul Jeffrey Katzenberg reportedly told an associate, “This is the lowest smear I’ve ever seen in this business.” (The movie is a Universal/DreamWorks co-production.) Given that smears and innuendo are the bread-and-butter of Hollywood and that Nash’s nutty notions about Jews are well-documented, Katzenberg’s hyperbole seems a tad excessive. But the impassioned defense indicates that the enemies of “A Beautiful Mind” may have finally found the front runner’s Achilles heel. Whether enough Academy voters are aware of the flap to hurt the movie’s chances is another story.
Clearly, there’s going to be an extra dose of tension and paranoia in the audience on March 24, when the Tinseltown elite take their seats in the new Kodak Theater. Security precautions will be unprecedented, but do these Hollywood players need protection from terrorists, or from each other?
For us civilians, the bigger worry is who to put our money on in the office pool. Here’s an educated guide to the nine major categories. There are a few sure bets, but this year, a full six of the nine top awards are close calls.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This is one of the safer wagers of the evening: Julian Fellowes will win for “Gosford Park.” He was the winner in the same category at the Writer’s Guild Awards, and, more crucially, “Gosford” is the only one of the five contenders to be nominated for Best Picture. “Memento” is too far out for the Academy, though it will have fierce champions. “Amelie” is in French. “The Royal Tenenbaums” got no other nominations. The only possible spoiler is “Monster’s Ball,” but the popularity of “Gosford” makes this a distinct long shot.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Again, go with the WGA and Golden Globe winner: “A Beautiful Mind.” This category is like a warm-up for the Best Picture race, and there will be support for both “In the Bedroom” (which wasn’t eligible for the Writers Guild award for technical reasons) and for “Lord of the Rings.” “Shrek” was beloved, but an animated film has never won this category, and isn’t likely to. Finally, “Ghost World” is a minority taste. Controversy or not, “Beautiful Mind” writer Akiva Goldsman will win because his inventions took a messy life and tidied it up into a simple uplifting fantasy.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
I’ve changed my mind several times about the winner here. Early on, it seemed as if Ben Kingsley was the favorite for his terrifying turn as a gangster in “Sexy Beast.” But the movie hasn’t generated any heat in Hollywood. Then, with his victories in some of the critics awards and the Golden Globes, Jim Broadbent seemed the natural winner for “Iris.” And it didn’t hurt that voters would also remember his terrific turn as “Moulin Rouge’s” master of ceremonies. Broadbent could still win, but now I’m leaning toward Sir Ian McKellan in “Lord of the Rings.” He’s a Knight, he’s never won an Oscar, the movie is much higher profile than “Iris” or “Sexy Beast,” his role is crucial, and he won the SAG award. That’s good enough for me. The two Americans, Ethan Hawke (who was actually the lead in “Training Day”) and Jon Voight (unrecognizable as Howard Cosell in “Ali”), are out of the running.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The winner will be Jennifer Connelly for “A Beautiful Mind.” No, she didn’t win best supporting actress from the screen actors guild. That’s because in that contest she was nominated for best actress. (Don’t ask.) Connelly has done good work before, but it rarely got noticed: everyone focused on her beauty and her breasts. Hollywood loves the sentimental scenario of the Bimbo Redeemed by Good Work. Helen Mirren, the SAG winner for “Gosford Park,” is the obvious runner up, followed by former winners Maggie Smith and Marisa Tomei, and Kate Winslet in “Iris.”
BEST ACTOR
This is a close and charged two-man race between two fine actors, neither of whom would win any popularity prizes in Hollywood. Will Russell Crowe make it twice in a row with “A Beautiful Mind,” despite his recent thuggish antics, or will Denzel Washington finally pull off the victory he failed to get for “The Hurricane” and “Malcolm X”? (He did win best supporting actor for “Glory.”) A lot has been made of the race issue this year: Sidney Poitier remains the only African-American actor to win the top prize. Washington has been quite vocal about not getting what he considers his due, but this could boomerang. Academy members may resent feeling pressured to vote out of political guilt. But what hurts Washington’s chances more is that “Training Day” is considered a genre movie, and doesn’t engender the passion that “A Beautiful Mind” has inspired. With Crowe’s SAG victory, Washington once again finds himself in the position of being the front runner who sees his lead slip away (it happened two years ago when Kevin Spacey overtook him with “American Beauty”). Prediction: Crowe by a nose. A win by Tom Wilkinson (“In the Bedroom”), Will Smith (“Ali”) or Sean Penn (“I Am Sam”) would be a major surprise, though you can never entirely rule out any actor playing a mentally challenged character.
BEST ACTRESS
Sissy Spacek has been the clear front runner ever since she won the L.A. Film Critics award and the Golden Globe. She’s well-liked, well-respected and hasn’t won since “Coal Miner’s Daughter.” But my gut has been telling me an upset is in the works, and Halle Berry’s surprise win at the SAG Awards confirmed it. The stars may be aligned in Halle’s favor. Not unlike Jennifer Connelly, she’s a Hollywood beauty who caught her colleagues by surprise by giving an image-altering, powerhouse performance. Can the voters resist the figure she’d cut waving her trophy in front of the world–young, gifted, gorgeous and black? Plus her part in “Monster’s Ball” is just the sort of no-holds-barred performance the Academy loves: given the choice between Spacek’s quiet hysteria and Berry’s full-throttle suffering, the voters usually go for the gut-wrenching. If Berry wins, she’ll become the first African-American best actress winner in history. Still, there are many who insist Nicole Kidman will win for “Moulin Rouge”–and for her travails as the ex-Mrs. Cruise. But in this category, drama will almost always trump a musical. Much as Hollywood loves Dame Judi Dench, “Iris” hasn’t made enough waves to carry her to another victory. Renee Zellweger has to be content with a nomination for “Bridget Jones’s Diary.” Funny rarely takes home the gold.
BEST FOREIGN FILM
All bets are risky in this category. Year after year, it’s the most upset-prone contest on Oscar night. If everybody voted, “Amelie” would be the easy winner. But in order to cast a ballot, you have to have seen all five nominees, and only a small percentage of the 5,700 voting members of the Academy turn out for the screenings. Some insiders privy to the foreign film committee’s workings predicted that “Amelie” wouldn’t even get a nomination in this category. They were wrong, but it indicates that there is not unanimous enthusiasm for the whimsical French film. Many have liked the Indian movie “Lagaan,” but can a four-hour film about cricket (with musical numbers) win? Don’t think so. The Norwegian misfit drama “Elling” will have some sentimental support, and the Argentinean entry, “Son of the Bride,” could pull off a surprise win–it looks like the sort of movie that appeals to the older voters who often decide the winner in this race. The smart money is on “Amelie,” for obvious reasons: it got five nominations in all and has the might of Miramax–the best Oscar campaigners in the business–behind it. But I’ll go out on a limb and forecast an upset victory for the Bosnian “No Man’s Land,” a powerful, darkly comic war fable whose timeliness may give it the winning edge.
BEST DIRECTOR
It used to be that the winning director made the winning picture, but you can’t rely on that theory anymore. (Last year “Gladiator” won, but Steven Soderbergh got best director for “Traffic.”) One thing is for sure. David Lynch (“Mulholland Drive”) doesn’t have a surrealist’s chance in hell. I would have considered Ridley Scott a serious contender (since he didn’t win for “Gladiator,” and is overdue) but when “Black Hawk Down” failed to get a Best Picture nomination, his chances diminished precipitously. That leaves three to duke it out. Robert Altman can’t be discounted: “Gosford Park” got seven nominations, he’s never won before, and he’s been racking up prizes left and right. A win would be a kind of Lifetime Achievement Award. On the other hand, his cranky personality and outspoken criticism of Hollywood hasn’t made him the most beloved guy in town. Peter Jackson has a lot going in his favor: “Lord of the Rings” has epic scale and a strong personal style. On the other hand, the voters know they’ll have two more opportunities to vote for him, if the sequels are up to the quality of “Fellowship.” And as a New Zealander, he’s a definite outsider. Ron Howard has been the Rodney Dangerfield of directors as far as the Academy is concerned: he hasn’t gotten any respect. Even when his movies have been nominated for best picture (“Apollo 13”) he hasn’t gotten nominated for director. That could work in his favor this year. The voters may want to kiss and make up. He’s well-liked, he’s a former actor (actors constitute the largest voting branch of the academy and if Mel Gibson and Kevin Costner can win best director, why not Opie…?) and he just won the Director’s Guild Award. Howard wins in a photo finish.
BEST PICTURE
If you go by the numbers, “Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Rings” ought to win Best Picture. Out of the last 19 years, the film with the most nominations has won 17 times. And the Tolkein epic scored 13 nominations, followed by “A Beautiful Mind” and “Moulin Rouge,” each with eight. Then again, if you believe that the winner of the Producer’s Guild Award forecasts the Oscar, you should put your money on “Moulin Rouge.” And if Baz Luhrmann’s movie manages to win, it would be the first since “Driving Miss Daisy” to win without its director being nominated. Nonetheless, “A Beautiful Mind” has all along been considered the movie to beat: the Academy likes uplifting, lump in your throat movies. (They also love epics–but “Lord of the Rings” may have had one orc too many: historical pageants carry more prestige than fantasy films.) “In the Bedroom” is probably too small to win: it wouldn’t reflect well on Hollywood if a movie made for less than $2 million beat out its bigger-budgeted rivals. The well-appointed “Gosford Park” could be a spoiler–never underestimate Hollywood anglophilia.
The envelope please … and the winner is … “A Beautiful Mind.” In the end, the Academy will decide it doesn’t care if the movie bears little resemblance to the real John Nash’s story. Hollywood believes in make believe, and on this Oscar night, as the competitors hurl poison darts at each other across the hall, wouldn’t it be nice to pretend that Love conquers All? The self-healed schizophrenic beats out the hairy-toed hobbit and the tubercular courtesan, and Hollywood can feel good about itself. For about two minutes.
