new century will not see the end of race–the dawning of an era when skin color is of no consequence–but it will see a further erosion of racial walls. And it will see America struggling to make sense of shifting racial classifications.
Already, Americans are changing–in ways both substantive and superficial–to conform to the new, more egalitarian, ideal. Nazis may still march, but they are inevitably outnumbered by counterprotesters. Aryan Nation kooks may still kill; but, if caught, they are imprisoned, stigmatized and scorned. Racial purity is not as prized as it once was. People who call themselves white proudly acknowledge Latino and Native American roots. A small number even acknowledge some black ancestry. And interracial romance, once outlawed and condemned, now openly blooms.
Between 1960 and 1992 the number of interracially married couples multiplied more than seven times over. Black-white unions are still not the norm, accounting for only 20 percent of interracial marriages, but the marriage color line has all but dissolved between Asians and whites. In America, more children are born to white-Japanese couples than to parents who are both of Japanese ancestry. Then there are Hispanics, who are projected to become America’s second largest racial-ethnic group (after whites) by 2010. Latinos may consider themselves white, black, American Indian, Asian or Pacific Islander–or deem themselves none of the above. It is not unusual in Latin America for people who don’t consider themselves black to speak of a grandparent who is. Whatever they call themselves, the presence of an ever-growing number of multiracials or mestizos is forcing Americans to relinquish the notion that everyone can be put in a single racial box. The Census Bureau, acknowledging that reality, will allow people to be counted in more than one racial category during next year’s Census.
When Tiger Woods revealed in 1997 that he thought of himself as “Cablinasian”–a mixture of Caucasian, black, Indian and Asian–when growing up, he was greeted with bemusement, even hostility. In fact, very few black Americans are just black. If people with “black blood” can now be white or at least not black, what becomes of the concept of passing? Passing, after all, implies a denial of one’s authentic ancestry to be accepted as a member of another race. But what happens when the definition of the other race changes enough to accommodate formerly forbidden ancestries? And what happens to the very notion of racism in a society where race has lost much of its meaning?
The rise of the mixed-race–or cafe au lait–society has led some to predict the end of distinctions based on ethnicity, racial appearance or ancestry. That seems unlikely. Even in Brazil, where racial mixing is accepted, even celebrated, color coding has not lost its sting. Status and privilege are still connected to lighter skin. Racial distinctions, albeit mutable and imprecise, are constantly made. In the emerging U.S. mestizo future, some people will still be whiter than others–and if the Latin America experience is any guide, they will have an advantage.
But what happens when whites become a minority? According to U.S. Census projections, by 2030 non-Hispanic whites may constitute fewer than half of those in the United States under the age of 18. A few decades after that, minorities, as now defined, will be in the majority. But common sense says the much-anticipated “majority-minority” future will never arrive. For one thing, such projections forecast the growth of ethnic cohorts as if racial intermingling will be insignificant, when it clearly will be anything but. And who is to say that a girl with one Asian grandparent, one Latino and two who are white will consider herself Asian or Latino instead of white? Or that a boy with one black, one Argentine and two Anglo grandparents will see himself as a “person of color”?
To complicate things even more, we have no idea what “majority race” will mean a half century from now. If the past is any guide, groups who are not now counted in the “majority” will be. Earlier in this century, entry of Eastern and Southern Europeans was restricted because of their supposedly inferior racial stock. Now Romanians are considered as white as any other Europeans. By the middle of the 21st century, many of those whom the Census projects to be Asian, Hispanic or black may be considered white–or whatever the new term is for the majority. The racial hierarchy, in other words, will not be upended because “minorities” suddenly outnumber whites. Racial categories will change long before that day arrives.
But if demographic shifts will not bring about the end of race, what will? The answer is that nothing will, not soon. Having established a more tolerant America is not the same as having established an America without racial assumptions and consequences. Even in today’s United States, infant mortality among blacks is more than twice that for whites. Blacks suffer higher rates of cancer, have a lower life expectancy and fare worse than whites on nearly every measure of health–including access to potentially lifesaving cancer surgery, according to an October report in The New England Journal of Medicine. Race also matters when it comes to educational opportunity. According to a study published by the Civil Rights Project at Harvard University, public-school segregation of blacks and Latinos is on the rise, in both cities and suburbs. And those increasingly black and Latino schools generally lack the resources of the typical white student’s school.
So what does that mean for the future? It means understanding, first of all, that the future is not a straightforward march from unenlightenment to paradise. When it comes to race, America has a habit of claiming victories it hasn’t earned. And as evidenced by ethnic-cleansing campaigns in the Balkans and Rwanda and by ethno-religious conflict in Sri Lanka and in countless other points around the globe, intergroup tension is not a peculiarly American problem. It seems to simply be part of the human condition.
It would be wrong, though, to say that the future will be little changed from the past, that Du Bois’s bleak prophecy for the 20th century will also define the new millennium. The color line is fraying all around us. The American future certainly will not be circumscribed by one long line with whites on one side and the “darker” races on the other; there will be many lines, and many camps, and few will be totally segregated. Disparities will remain. But with the rudest reminders of racism washed away, it will be a lot easier to tell ourselves that we finally have overcome.
