We know that big trades lead to more action on a team, but are the Padres really a legit contender to win the 2022 MLB World Series? We’ll look at how BetMGM’s title odds shifted after San Diego’s deadline deals, as well as whether there’s value in placing a wager on the Friars.
All odds courtesy of BetMGM
Padres World Series Odds 2022: Before trading for Juan Soto
On Aug. 1, San Diego’s title odds sat at +1800 or 18-1, which gave it the seventh-lowest odds to win the World Series. San Diego desperately needs more consistent bats in its offense, as the Padres currently sport the league’s 19th-best WRC+ (99) along with the 20th-best wOBA (.305). The additions of Soto and Bell (152 OPS+ in 2022) give the Padres a much more lethal offensive attack that’s capable of doing damage in October.
Soto, who’s been as consistent as they’ve come during his first five seasons in MLB, enters San Diego on a tear over the past month, posting a .333/.520/.633 slash line. His ability to grind out at-bats will lead to a much more complete Padres offense that will likely secure a wild-card playoff spot.
Padres World Series Odds 2022: After trading for Juan Soto
Once officially trading for Soto, the Padres’ odds to win the 2022 World Series have gone down to +1000, or 10-1. In terms of an implied probability, San Diego’s chances to win the World Series went from 5.26 percent to 9.09 percent. That’s a fairly big jump considering San Diego won’t win its division but has more than enough pieces to play its best baseball when it matters most. The Nationals won the ‘19 World Series as a wild-card team, and the ‘21 Braves, while not a wild-card team, had to play on the road in the first round of the playoffs.
San Diego fared well in what it had to give up for Soto, as there are more than enough pieces on their active roster capable of leading it to a World Series championship. Perhaps just as important as adding Soto, Bell, and Hader is the eventual return of superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., who’s been out all year because of a fractured left wrist. He’s gearing toward a return to the Padres’ everyday lineup, giving San Diego a realistic shot to do damage in the postseason.
Betting advice: San Diego’s undoubtedly a legit World Series contender. Given the new format of the MLB playoffs, as long as the Padres get into the field, their pitching depth and offensive firepower can lead to its first World Series title in franchise history. While the odds have adjusted accordingly, risking a portion of your bankroll on a Padres World Series future isn’t the worst thing in the world.
