That’s why Beijing’s bombshell came as such a shock. In a report released last week, China threatened to attack Taiwan if it dragged its feet on reunification talks. Chinese leaders have threatened war ever since the defeated Nationalists retreated to Taiwan in 1949–but only if Taipei declared independence or was occupied by foreign powers. When Taiwan held its first democratic presidential election four years ago, Beijing lobbed missiles into the Taiwan Strait. Last week’s assault, unleashed in a government white paper, was another warning to Taiwan’s voters, who will go to the polls on March 18: “If they select a separatist candidate,” says Yu Keli, vice president of Beijing’s Institute of Taiwan Studies, “it will be very hard to keep the situation peaceful.” Washington warned China not to interfere, prompting more angry rhetoric from Beijing.
So far China’s “paper missile,” as Taiwan political scientist Andrew Yang called the report, seems to have misfired. Beijing’s main target was former Taipei mayor Chen, a longtime champion of Taiwan’s right to independence until last year, when he cooled his rhetoric. Chen is neck-and-neck with the other candidates, with about 25 percent support in the polls. In recent weeks he has been mired in domestic politics, accusing the ruling Nationalist Party (KMT) of corruption while parrying attacks from other candidates. But after Beijing’s latest threat, Chen’s defiant spirit returned. “They are asking for our surrender,” he shouted to cheering villagers in central Taiwan, as firecrackers exploded around him. “And we’re not going to negotiate for that.”
The other candidates have been equally forceful. James Soong, a former KMT leader now running independently, and who has always staunchly opposed independence, was the first to respond to the report. “The future of Taiwan should be determined by the people of Taiwan,” Soong said. “We will never accept terms for surrender.” Vice President Lien Chan, the KMT candidate, said, “Any pressure Communist China gives us about [our] right to exist will be met with the firm opposition of Taiwan’s 22 million people.”
Why would Beijing want to alienate Taiwan now? According to U.S. business leaders and government officials who have visited Beijing recently, the Chinese are worried that a new dynamic may be emerging in the Taiwan-U.S.-China triangle. They were infuriated last July, when Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui tried to boost Taipei’s international status by saying that cross-strait relations were on “a special state-to-state basis.” Beijing is worried that Washington’s commitment to a one-China policy might be slipping. The Chinese are especially angry over the recent passage by the U.S. House of Representatives of a bill (called the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act) that would arm Taiwan with more weapons, which they believe will forestall unification.
Chinese officials have lashed out at Congress for supporting the Taiwan defense legislation. In Washington, U.S. legislators and Chinese diplomats traded barbs. The Chinese ambassador’s deputy, Liu Xiaoming, called Congress “a reckless and irresponsible body” and warned that the act would push Taiwan closer to a war with China. According to U.S. Senator Jesse Helms, Liu also insulted the intelligence of all U.S. representatives, especially those who voted for the bill. Helms complained about Liu’s remarks in a letter to Chinese Ambassador Li Zhaoxing, which was published recently in The Washington Times.
Ambassador Li then took umbrage at Helms’s letter. “As far as I can recall,” Li said in a note to Helms, “[my deputy] has never compared you or any of your congressional colleagues to ’elementary school pupils.’ It is a fact that some congressmen did not have adequate knowledge of the origin of the Taiwan question.” Yan Xuetong, a policy analyst in Beijing, asserts that the legislators’ support for Taiwan has dangerous implications. U.S. politicians “need to cool their heads and rethink the one-China principle,” he says. “Without the one-China principle, there can be no political dialogue; without political dialogue, there can be no peaceful solution. The implication is disaster.”
While China is fretting about the U.S. Congress, the State Department is worried about Beijing. Washington traditionally has maintained a delicate balance between recognizing “one China” while continuing to sell arms to Taiwan. Taipei’s new assertiveness could erode Washington’s delicate policy of “strategic ambiguity.” In response to Beijing’s threats, Congress–already concerned about China’s human-rights record–might withhold approval for China’s entry into the World Trade Organization. Support for the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act, on the other hand, could get an added boost. If the act passes the Senate, the Clinton administration may no longer be willing to risk a veto and face rising anti-China sentiment.
Meanwhile, Beijing’s anti-Taiwan outburst was forcing Washington to side with its old ally Taiwan. White House spokesman Joe Lockhart hinted that the United States could dispatch a naval force to the area–as it did in 1996, when two U.S. aircraft carriers sailed into the waters off Taiwan after Beijing’s missile firings. As if on cue, the USS Kitty Hawk, a carrier, left its Japanese port on Wednesday. The Pentagon said its assignment was “prescheduled.”
Beijing’s behavior over the next few weeks will be influenced by Taiwan’s election. China is already skeptical of the candidates’ peace proposals. A recent People’s Daily editorial accused “some separatists” in Taiwan of “shouting ‘Long Live Taiwan Independence’ on the one hand” while claiming to want “friendly reconciliation, active cooperation and permanent peace with the mainland on the other.”
China may have good reason to worry about Taiwan’s drift. Taiwanese businesses have invested heavily on the mainland, and millions of Taiwan residents stream to China each year. But socially and politically, democratic Taiwan is racing, not drifting, away from communist China. Taiwan’s younger generation, with no memories of life before President Lee, feels little connection to China. “China doesn’t understand that we are a democratic country,” says Yang Lin-teh, a former motocross racer who now owns a restaurant in Taipei. “You can’t force someone to vote for someone else.”
It’s still hard to say which way the election will swing. Chen’s crusade for independence seems to many Taiwanese like a natural successor to Lee’s pro-Taiwan struggle. “China’s threats make us angry,” says Yang. “If you show fear, then China will take advantage of that.” But Beijing may still win in the upcoming election. Fear could drive pragmatic voters away from Chen. After Beijing’s verbal attack, Taiwan’s stock market fell by 1.8 percent. Analysts say the island’s 5 million shareholders–about a third of the total voting population–could decide to vote for a “safe” candidate, such as Lien or Soong. Says Harvard history professor William Kirby: “There is now a sense in Taiwan that in the longer haul, security can only be guaranteed through some form of cooperation with the mainland.”
The last time Taiwan held a presidential election, Beijing’s scare tactics bolstered the Taiwan people’s support for President Lee–despite the fact that Beijing had labeled him a “splittist.” So far the candidates are standing up to Beijing. But they all recognize that China is a permanent player in Taiwan’s political scene. Even Chen by the end of last week was trying to assure his voters that he wasn’t about to start a war. “I am a peacemaker, not a troublemaker,” he said. It will take more than that to convince Beijing.
