title: “Payback Time " ShowToc: true date: “2022-12-03” author: “Charles Morley”
Amid the jockeying over war in Iraq–and who, among the Europeans, will support it–Talleyrand’s brand of cynicism is transparently coming to the fore, and not only from the French. The Bush administration is putting on the hard sell. A little like the insurance salesman who reminds you that “something might happen” if you don’t go ahead and sign, Washington insists that “time is running out.” “Really?” ask the French, the Turks and most other Europeans, putting on a sour face. Privately, they pose a more pointed query: “What’s in it for us?”
Of all America’s reluctant allies, the Turks are most up-front about this souk-style bargaining. They’re on the front line. They know Washington needs them. They want money–far more than the $4 billion initially offered. They also want a direct say in the war’s aftermath, with tens of thousands of Turkish troops stationed in northern Iraq to cope with an expected flood of refugees and block any nationalist aspirations by Iraq’s Kurds.
The French, by contrast, are holding out even more stubbornly. The conventional wisdom remains that Paris will cave in the end, if only to have a seat at the table in the postwar phase. In fact, it may not. But by saying “non” now, the calculation goes, France will strengthen its hand with the United States, increase its weight within the core of continental Europe (if not lead it outright) and expand its influence in the Middle East. British Prime Minister Tony Blair has taken the opposite tack, emphasizing his friendship, if not fealty, to Washington in hopes of moderating the administration’s position now and winning favors in the future. “Be at their feet, but never in their hands,” Talleyrand would have advised.
Europe’s leaders are mindful of recent history. The Turks, especially, are keen not to repeat their mistakes of the last Iraq war. Last week Washington and Ankara signaled that a deal is close. NEWSWEEK has learned that the Bush administration sweetened the pot with offers to forgive $5 billion in loans, plus new loan guarantees and other side deals that could be worth $15 billion to $20 billion. But the Parliament in Ankara won’t sign off on America’s deploying 40,000 to 50,000 soldiers through Turkey until Feb. 18. Furthermore, the government wants a roughly equal number of its own troops in northern Iraq under Turkish, not “coalition,” command. And it wants all this in writing. “We don’t want a situation like before,” says one senior official, “where the administration says, ‘We made our best efforts, but you know Congress…’ "
The French, the British and many hopeful contractors elsewhere in Europe also remember the way the Americans organized a vast coalition to share in the liberation of Kuwait–even making a profit on their financial contributions–and then monopolized the rewards afterward. U.S. companies cornered the market on everything from extinguishing the oil wells torched by Saddam to refurbishing Saudi Arabia’s airline fleet ($6 billion to Boeing) and the country’s upgraded communications ($4 billion to AT&T).
This time around, countries are taking a harder line. Europe’s Airbus consortium will want to sell planes. Several European companies want telecom deals. The construction contracts will be huge, and U.S.-based Bechtel has many competitors that want a piece of the action in rebuilding Iraq’s tottering infrastructure. Then there’s the oil itself: proven reserves second only to Saudi Arabia’s, which every major oil company in the world wants to exploit. France and Russia are also owed billions of dollars for arming Iraq in the 1980s.
With war looking increasingly likely, the game for Europeans is how to snag a bigger share of these spoils. Is it best to back the United States now, as Britain, Spain and Italy are doing? That didn’t pay off in 1991. Or is it better to step back and see what Uncle Sam offers under the table? “I’m never rushed, and I always get there,” said Talleyrand. Expect the diplomatic bargaining to continue at least until the shooting starts, and probably long afterward.
